Crunching the Numbers: 2023 NY Real Estate Market Predictions

The Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. (HGAR) and OneKey® MLS hosted a virtual panel last week featuring real estate experts who discussed how the New York market is shaping up so far this year and where it’s headed. Leaders from First Republic Bank, Marketproof, Inc. and Miller Samuel Inc. walked through what the data tells us about the interest rate environment and the current state of the region’s unique market dynamics.

“We saw a trend last year where the market started out really strong and then started to decelerate in the third and fourth quarter. Right now, we’re seeing the product of that deceleration, and will start to see a lot of activity for the spring market because buyers have been on the sidelines waiting to see what would happen. But now that we’re beginning to have stability in interest rates and pricing, things are going to get going again,” said Richard Haggerty, CEO of OneKey® MLS, the regional multiple listing service that covers nearly a dozen counties in the greater NYC area from Manhattan, to Suffolk, Westchester and Sullivan counties.

“Crunching the Numbers: Buy, Hold or Sell?” featured Marissa S. Tracey, managing director, relationship management at First Republic Bank; Kael Goodman, president and CEO at Marketproof; and Jonathan Miller, president and CEO at Miller Samuel Inc. The event was moderated by Brian D. Tormey, NTP, president of TitleVest, a leading NYC-based provider of title insurance and related real estate services.

Tracey started off with a summary of the interest rate environment and predictions for what will happen next, which includes two more rate increases with a terminal rate of 5% by the end of May.

“Inventory is chronically low, with Westchester’s being the lowest on record, and we’re seeing this across every housing market,” said Miller. “2023 will be ‘the year of disappointment’ because sellers won’t get buyers at 2021 and early 2022 prices, and buyers aren’t going to see any massive improvement in inventory, affordability, or in rates any time soon – on the bright side this is a sign the economy is strong.”

The discussion soon turned to affordable housing and Goodman shared his perspective on steps to a solution.

“The issue related to housing in NYC has got to be solved in city hall and the governor’s office. The next phase is about government stimulus,” said Goodman. “The governor has proposed elongating the period to build under the 421-a tax exemption, but there are various zoning issues, and the cost of capital looks like it will remain an issue still for a while, so it’s going to require local leadership. The good news is, we do have a governor and a mayor who will talk to each other. We have a very complicated thing going on, and we don’t have enough perspective yet to figure it out.”

For more, view the webinar:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIU8hR3zfIg

The webinar is part of the “Be Your Best” series created by HGAR and OneKey® MLS, to help Realtors and agents navigate a changing landscape. The event was sponsored by TitleVest.

About OneKey® MLS

OneKey® MLS has 50,000-plus subscribers and serves Manhattan, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Orange, Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. It was formed in 2018 by the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors and the Long Island Board of Realtors.

About Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors®

The Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors (www.hgar.com) is a not-for-profit trade association representing more than 14,000 real estate professionals in Manhattan, the Bronx, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland and Orange counties. It is the second-largest Realtor association in New York, and one of the largest in the U.S.

PHOTO CAPTION: 

The Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors, Inc. (HGAR) and OneKey® MLS hosted “Crunching the Numbers: Buy, Hold or Sell?” on Feb. 9 as part of the “Be Your Best” series. From L to R: (top) Gary Connolly, chief strategy officer, HGAR; Jonathan Miller, president and CEO, Miller Samuel Inc.; Richard Haggerty, CEO of OneKey® MLS; (bottom) Brian D. Tormey, NTP, president, TitleVest; Marissa S. Tracey, managing director, relationship management at First Republic Bank; Kael Goodman, president and CEO, Marketproof, Inc.